As Syrian forces backed by Russia launch the final showdown in Syria against jihadist extremists in Idlib province, the potential for a U.S.-Russia confrontation has never been greater, as VIPS warns in this memo to the president.\u00a0<\/span>September 9, 2018<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n MEMORANDUM FOR:<\/strong>\u00a0The President<\/p>\n FROM:<\/strong>\u00a0Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity<\/p>\n SUBJECT<\/strong>: Moscow Has Upped the Ante in Syria<\/p>\n Mr. President:<\/p>\n We are concerned that you may not have been adequately briefed on the upsurge of hostilities in northwestern Syria, where Syrian armed forces with Russian support have launched a full-out campaign to take back the al-Nusra\/al-Qaeda\/ISIS- That someone is you. The Israelis, Saudis, and others who want unrest to endure are egging on the insurgents, assuring them that you, Mr. President, will use U.S. forces to protect the insurgents in Idlib, and perhaps also rain hell down on Damascus.\u00a0 We believe that your senior advisers are encouraging the insurgents to think in those terms, and that your most senior aides are taking credit for your recent policy shift from troop withdrawal from Syria to indefinite war.<\/p>\n Big Difference This Time<\/strong><\/p>\n Russian missile-armed naval and air units are now deployed in unprecedented numbers to engage those tempted to interfere with Syrian and Russian forces trying to clean out the terrorists from Idlib. We assume you have been briefed on that \u2014 at least to some extent. More important, we know that your advisers tend to be dangerously dismissive of Russian capabilities and intentions.<\/p>\n We do not want you to be surprised when the Russians start firing their missiles.\u00a0 The prospect of direct Russian-U.S. hostilities in Syria is at an all-time high.\u00a0 We are not sure you realize that.<\/p>\n The situation is even more volatile because Kremlin leaders are not sure who is calling the shots in Washington.\u00a0 This is not the first time that President Putin has encountered such uncertainty (see brief Appendix below).\u00a0 This is, however, the first time that Russian forces have deployed in such numbers into the area, ready to do battle.\u00a0 The stakes are very high.<\/p>\n We hope that John Bolton has given you an accurate description of his acerbic talks with his Russian counterpart in Geneva a few weeks ago. In our view, it is a safe bet that the Kremlin is uncertain whether Bolton faithfully speaks in your stead, or speaks INSTEAD of you.<\/p>\n The best way to assure Mr. Putin that you are in control of U.S. policy toward Syria would be for you to seek an early opportunity to speak out publicly, spelling out your intentions.\u00a0 If you wish wider war, Bolton has put you on the right path.<\/p>\n If you wish to cool things down, you may wish to consider what might be called a pre-emptive ceasefire. By that we mean a public commitment by the presidents of the U.S. and Russia to strengthen procedures to preclude an open clash between U.S. and Russian armed forces.\u00a0 We believe that, in present circumstances, this kind of extraordinary step is now required to head off wider war.<\/p>\n For the VIPS Steering Group, signed:<\/em><\/p>\n William Binney,<\/strong>\u00a0former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)<\/p>\n Marshall Carter-Tripp,<\/strong>\u00a0Foreign Service Officer (ret.) and Division Director, State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research<\/p>\n Philip Giraldi,<\/strong>\u00a0CIA Operations Officer (retired)<\/p>\n James George Jatras,<\/strong>\u00a0former U.S. diplomat and former foreign policy adviser to Senate Republican leadership (Associate VIPS)<\/p>\n Michael S. Kearns<\/strong>, Captain, U.S. Air Force, Intelligence Officer, and former Master SERE Instructor (retired)<\/p>\n John Kiriakou,<\/strong>\u00a0Former CIA Counterterrorism Officer and Former Senior Investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee<\/p>\n Matthew Hoh,<\/strong>\u00a0former Capt., USMC Iraq; Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)<\/p>\n Edward Loomis<\/strong>, NSA Cryptologic Computer Scientist (ret.)<\/p>\n Linda Lewis,<\/strong>\u00a0WMD preparedness policy analyst, USDA (ret) (Associate VIPS)<\/p>\n David MacMichael,<\/strong>\u00a0Senior Estimates Officer, National Intelligence Council (ret.)<\/p>\n Ray McGovern,<\/strong>\u00a0Army\/Infantry Intelligence Officer and CIA Presidential Briefer (retired)<\/p>\n Elizabeth Murray<\/strong>, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East, National Intelligence Council (retired)<\/p>\n Todd E. Pierce,<\/strong>\u00a0MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (ret.)<\/p>\n Ann Wright,<\/strong>\u00a0retired U.S. Army reserve colonel and former U.S. diplomat who resigned in 2003 in opposition to the Iraq War<\/p>\n Appendix:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Sept 12, 2016:<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0The limited ceasefire goes into effect; provisions include separating the \u201cmoderate\u201d rebels from the others.\u00a0Secretary John Kerry had earlier claimed that he had \u201crefined\u201d ways to accomplish the separation, but it did not happen; provisions also included safe access for relief for Aleppo.<\/p>\n Sept 17, 2016:<\/strong>\u00a0U.S. Air Force bombs fixed Syrian Army positions killing between 64 and 84 Syrian army troops; about 100 others wounded \u2014 evidence enough to convince the Russians that the Pentagon was intent on scuttling meaningful cooperation with Russia.<\/p>\n Sept 26, 2016:<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0We can assume that what Lavrov has told his boss in private is close to his uncharacteristically blunt words on Russian NTV on\u00a0Sept. 26<\/span><\/span>. (In public remarks bordering on the insubordinate, senior Pentagon officials a few days earlier had showed unusually open skepticism regarding key aspects of the Kerry-Lavrov agreement \u2013 like sharing intelligence with the Russians (a key provision of the deal approved by both Obama and Putin). \u00a0\u00a0Here\u2019s what Lavrov said on\u00a0Sept 26<\/span><\/span>:<\/p>\n \u201cMy good friend John Kerry \u2026 is under fierce criticism from the US military machine. Despite the fact that, as always, [they] made assurances that the US Commander in Chief, President Barack Obama, supported him in his contacts with Russia (he confirmed that during his meeting with President Vladimir Putin), apparently the military does not really listen to the Commander in Chief.\u201d<\/p>\n Lavrov went beyond mere rhetoric. He also specifically criticized JCS Chairman Joseph Dunford for telling Congress that he opposed sharing intelligence with Russia, \u201cafter the agreements concluded on direct orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama stipulated that they would share intelligence. \u2026 It is difficult to work with such partners. \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n Oct 27, 2016:<\/strong>\u00a0 Putin speaks at the Valdai International Discussion Club Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) is made up of former intelligence officers, diplomats, military officers and congressional staffers. The organization, founded in 2002, was among the first critics of Washington\u2019s justifications for launching a war against Iraq. VIPS advocates a US foreign and national security policy based on genuine national interests rather than contrived threats promoted for largely political reasons. An archive of VIPS memoranda is available at Consortiumnews.com.<\/b><\/p>\n
\nAt Valdai Russian President Putin spoke of the \u201cfeverish\u201d state of international relations and lamented: \u201cMy personal agreements with the President of the United States have not produced results.\u201d He complained about \u201cpeople in Washington ready to do everything possible to prevent these agreements from being implemented in practice\u201d and, referring to Syria, decried the lack of a \u201ccommon front against terrorism after such lengthy negotiations, enormous effort, and difficult compromises.\u201d<\/p>\n